“The fastest 2 minutes in sports,” the 147th Run for the Roses, commences Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville. The 146th Derby took place in September of 2020 with Bob Baffert trained Authentic taking the title. In 2019, the 145th running, Maximum Security looked to have the race secured winning it, but the 3 officials reviewed the race afterwards, and after a 30 minute deliberation, ruled that MS had bumped another horse on the backstretch before prevailing, so it was disqualified. Country House, ridden by Flavien Prat and trained by William I. Mott, was declared the winner as it had finished second. interestingly, the jockey aboard Maximum Security was Luis Saez, who is on the saddle for this year’s Derby favorite, Essential Quality at 2-1.
The weather Saturday looks terrific with sunny skies and a high of 76. It is raining pretty hard in Louisville today, but tomorrow and Saturday are sunny and perfect, so the 1 1/4 mile dirt track should be relatively dry. NBC will televise the race with coverage beginning at 1:30 PM CT and continuing on to 6:30 PM CT. Post Time is 5:57 PM CT on the dirt track.
Here are the Post positions and contenders for the 147th Derby.
Known Agenda (6-1), Trainer, Todd Pletcher, Jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr.
Like the King, (50-1), Trainer, Wesley Ward, Jockey, Drayden Van Dyke
Brooklyn Strong (50-1), Trainer, Daniel Velazquez, Jockey, Umberto Rispoli
Keepmeinmind (50-1) Trainer, Robertino Diodoro, Jockey, David Cohen
Sainthood (50-1) Trainer, Todd Pletcher, Jockey, Corey Lanerie
O Besos (20-1) Trainer, Greg Foley, Jockey, Marcelino Pedroza
Mandaloun (15-1), Trainer, Brad Cox, Jockey, Florent Geroux
Medina Spirit (15-1), Trainer, Bob Baffert, Jockey, John Velazquez
Hot Rod Charlie (8-1), Trainer, Doug O’Nelll, Jockey, Flavien Prat
Midnight Bourbon (20-1) Trainer, Steve Asmussen, Jockey, Mike Smith
Dynamic One (20-1), Trainer, Todd Pletcher, Jockey, Jose Ortiz
Helium (50-1) Trainer, Mark Casse, Jockey, Julien Leparoux
Hidden Stash (50-1) Trainer, Vicki Oliver, Jockey, Rafael Bejarano
Essential Quality (2-1) Trainer, Brad Cox, Jockey, Luis Saez
Rock Your World (5-1), Trainer, John Sadler, Jockey, Joel Rosario
King Fury (20-1) Trainer, Kenny McPeek, Jockey, Brian Hernandez
Highly Motivated (10-1) Trainer, Chad Brown, Jockey, Javier Castellano
Super Stock (30-1), Trainer, Steve Asmussen, Jockey, Ricardo Santana Jr.
Soup and Sandwich (30-1), Trainer, Mark Casse, Jockey, Tyler Gaffalione
Bourbonic (30-1), Trainer, Todd Pletcher, Jockey, Kendrick Carmouch
Winner
I’m tempted to pick 5-1 Rock Your World, but I see the racing gods punishing trainer John Sadler for replacing Santa Anita Derby winning jockey Umberto Rispoli, aboard RYW, with veteran and Derby winning jockey Joel Rosario. Pretty shrewd, cutthroat move and I see it coming back to haunt Sadler. Hot Rod Charlie won the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Doug O’Neill has won the Derby twice in 2012 with I’ll Have Another, and in 2016 with Nyquist. Bob Baffert has won 6 Derby’s and has a 15-1 riding in Medina Spirit, so he’s always a factor especially with Baffert and big time winner jockey John Velazquez aboard. Two time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher has a solid horse in 20-1 Dynamic One. Pletcher won the Derby with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. Dynamic One is being ridden by Derby winning jockey and cagy veteran Jose Ortiz. Another Pletcher horse, Known Agenda, is at 6-1 and is being ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. another veteran, successful jockey. The problem for Known Agenda is that it is in the No.1 post position.
With those top flight contenders, I’m still going to take the favorite. I know that’s not the most exciting prediction, but listened to Brad Cox before and after winning the Blue Grass Stakes, a 1 1/8 mile dirt race on April 3rd and was impressed. Essential Quality is undefeated in 5 races and won the Breeders’ Cup back on November 6th, the Juvenile race for 2 year olds. It also won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 27th of this year. Cox is from Louisville and no trainer from Louisville has ever won the Derby, so there is some underdog factor in that. I like Cox to win and jockey Luis Saez to get redemption from the devastating Maximum Security disqualification in 2019. Give me,