My four playoff teams at this point are in order:
1. Alabama
Looked like the best team in the country last week as they blasted Georgia in Athens, 38-10. Have an SEC gauntlet coming up though, with Arkansas at home, Texas A&M on the road next Saturday, Oct. 17th, 2:30 PM CT on CBS in a huge showdown, Tennessee at home, Oct. 24th, a week off Oct. 31, and then LSU visits Bryant-Denny on November 7th. So the Tide has a load in front of them. I definitely like them against Arkansas and UT, A&M and LSU are trickier, but certainly doable.
2. Baylor
Averaging 63.8 points per game. Giving up 26, so they're playing better defense. Defense is always the question mark at Baylor, but man can they play some offense. Could come down to @ TCU on November 27th which could determine if they're in. At Oklahoma State November 21st is no guarantee either.
3. Ohio State
Can't keep them out though they're just kind of getting by right now. The talent is through the roof though. Roadblocks are Michigan State at home on November 21st, and at the Big House to visit Jim Harbaugh and Michigan on November 28th. That's looking to be a classic.
4. Utah
This is a tough, hard-nosed, outstanding football team. They run it well, they pass it well, they're tough in the trenches, and they play SEC like defense, I'm talking Alabama-like defense. They face a 5-0 Cal team at home and that's no kick in, they're at USC, Oct. 24th, and UCLA visits the Utes on Nov. 21st. Things are setting up pretty well for this team and they are legit. Beat Oregon 62-20 at Autzen Stadium, and while Oregon is struggling somewhat, they're really good at home and they still have playmakers galore. So that was a serious woodshed victory.
Other teams in contention for a playoff spot at this point are TCU, Clemson, Michigan State, Michigan, Florida State and Northwestern. Northwestern at Michigan Saturday. Stanford is starting to enforce their will on people and are looking pretty tough. Northwestern beat them 16-6 in the season opener for both teams, so that tells me a lot about Northwestern. I've got Michigan in there. Harbaugh has instilled toughness and discipline back into this storied program. He has them back a year or two sooner than most people thought he would. He's got pretty good talent and is really coaching them up.
Here's a look at this week's lineup.
Last week: 15-5; Overall 75-22 (77%)
Arkansas (2-3, 1-1 SEC) @ No.8 Alabama (4-1, 1-1)
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa (101, 821)
6 PM CT/7 PM ET
ESPN
Line: Bama by 16 1/2
The defense is as good as any Nick Saban and Kirby Smart have had in Tuscaloosa. The front seven is close to impossible to run on, and the secondary showed how talented they were last week with three interceptions of Georgia passes. Eddie Jackson had one he returned 50 yards, Ronnie Harrison had one he returned 29 yards, and Marlon Humphrey made a really good int as he was falling down backwards. Reggie Ragland is playing lights out and is the leader of the defense. They're dominant. Derrick Henry is piling up the yards on the ground. He ran for 148 yards and a 30 yard seven to open up the touchdown barrage by the Crimson Tide. That run put Bama in front 10-3, and Jake Coker, Cavin Ridley and Minkah Fitzpatrick took it from there. Fitzpatrick blocked a Georgia punt and took it in from a yard to put the Tide up 17-3, then Coker connected with the electric Ridley for a 45 yard touchdown that put the game basically away, 24-3, late in the second quarter.
Henry has now rushed for 570 yards on 93 carries (6.1 per) and has nine TDs. He is tied for seventh in the country in touchdowns and 19th in rushing yards. Boise State running back Jeremy McNichols leads the country with 12 TDs and Leonard Fournette leads the country in rushing yards with 864. Fournette is second in the country with 11 TDs. Henry is an awesome North-South runner, which S loves, and all the other coaches who like power football. Harbaugh and Utah's Kyle Whittingham are two of them. They want that kind of runner. He's not super at creating yards, he needs holes, but he's certainly doin work for the Crimson Tide this season. Jake Coker played terrifically last week in the rain in Athens. He was 11-of-16 for 190 yards and a TD, and played a flawless game. He's got it together. He and Kiff are definitely on the same page right now. Kenyan Drake is still an explosive play waiting to happen as is Ridley. Alabama needs to keep developing its other skilled players, and getting O.J. Howard involved in the offense should be a priority. Howard is an excellent tight end and Kiffin needs to get him the ball more. He could be an excellent weapon.
Arkansas had a tremendous win at Tennessee last Saturday night, 24-20, and really should have beaten A&M the week before in Arlington, Texas, losing to the Aggies. 28-21. They really outplayed A&M in that game and should have come away with the W. But they're 2-3 and 1-1 in the conference, they have a massive offensive line, an outstanding running game, and a pretty good passing offense. Their secondary is somewhat questionable, but they've got some talent on defense. Alex Collins, who was a four star recruit out of high school in Florida three years ago, has been terrific running the football. He has gained 656 yards this season on 113 carries (5.8 per) with six TDs. He's averaging 131 yards per game. He's eighth in the country in rushing yards. Freshman Rawleigh Williams has done an excellent job taking the place of Jonathan Williams, the stud tailback for Arkansas, along with Collins, who was lost for the season with a knee injury he sustained in fall camp. Williams is good. He has rushed for 226 yards on 47 totes (4.8) and has a seven. He's going to be a hoss for them these next three or four years. He already is. Quarterback Brandon Allen is a senior who has paid his dues the last three years. He's completed 93-of-141 passes (66%) for 1,360 yards and 8 TDs this season. He has thrown three interceptions. So Arkansas will test the Bama secondary and they will for sure try to figure out ways to move the ball on the ground. Their leading receiver is wide out Drew Morgan who has 23 receptions for 413 yards and three scores. Tight end Hunter Henry is a big part of Bret Bielema's offense. The 6'5", 253 pound junior has 20 catches for 268 yards and a seven. Their leading tackler is cornerback Rohan Gaines, who has 26 stops. Sophomore safety Henre' Tolliver is second on the team in tackles with 24 and 4 for a loss of 14 yards. That's not a great sign when two guys in your secondary are leading the team in tackling. The front seven looks vulnerable to Henry and the running game.
With all that said, I like the Tide to win for sure. Could be a tougher game because the team is coming off an emotional victory at Athens last week, and Arkansas is a pretty good football team. But they'll get the job done.
Alabama 35, Arkansas 17
Thoughts on Auburn
Gus just kicked Duke Williams off the team. Williams is a loser right now and needs to get his act together if he wants to have any kind of future, whether it'll be in the NFL, which he wants, or in a coaching capacity or whatever he would be forced to do if football doesn't work out. And he better get it together quickly. He was a disaster to this football team.
I watched the Tigers defeat San Jose State 35-21 and was very impressed with the running game. Peyton Barber is not the most talented running back on the depth chart, but right now he's the best. He ran for 147 yards and five TDs last week. He's playing sensational football right now for the Tigers. Roc Thomas looks like he's getting it together and freshman Kerryon Johnson looks like he's going to be really good and be an explosive playmaker like Roc. Sean White only completed six-of 10 passes for 108 yards, but had a nice 42-yard deep ball to Ricardo Louis. The quarterback competition is open now as White and Jeremy Johnson will battle for QB1 against Kentucky next Thursday, October 15th, at 6 PM on ESPN. Will keep an eye on that as the competition proceeds this weekend. I imagine Gus and Rhett Lashlee will have made their decision by Sunday night. The defense played better against San Jose State. San Jose State had an outstanding running back in Tyler Ervin, who had rushed for 300 yards the week before against Fresno State. He ran for a buck 60 against the Tigers on 27 carries, but the Tigers seemed to make it a little harder on him in the second half. Will Muschamp has Cassanova McKinzy playing defensive end now and that helps with the pass rush. Johnathan Ford led the Tigers with 14 tackles and linebacker Kris Frost added 12. There were four tackles for loss and two interceptions, one by Justin Garrett and another by true freshman Carlton Davis, who made an excellent reaction on a tipped ball by the San Jose receiver. Davis was falling forward to the ground and caught it. Great play. Cornerback Jonathan Jones and defensive tackle Dontavius Russell had fumble recoveries. And there were a couple of stellar kickoff returns. Johnathan Ford took a kick back 58 yards and Blake Countiss reeled off a 61 yard kickoff return. So there were a lot of positives to build on for the Tigers.
Kentucky will be a tough road test and the Tigers have to have this one to turn this season around. They have to be able to run the football and they really need good quarterback play. They lost a receiver, though Williams wasn't doing much, so they need Ricardo Louis, Marcus Davis and some others to step up. Louis needs to be the leader. He's a playmaker. Kentucky will test the Tigers. This is a must win if Auburn wants to get their season going again. AU is 3-2 overall and 0-2 in conference with losses to Mississippi State, 17-3, and LSU, 45-21. Kentucky is 4-1 overall and 2-1 in the SEC with wins over Missouri at home, 21-13, and South Carolina on the road, 26-22. They have lost to Florida at home, 14-9. They've got a pretty decent quarterback, Patrick Towles, and good running backs in Stanley "Boom" Williams, and JoJo Kemp. Their offense is pretty solid, though if you get good pressure on Towles, he can be inaccurate and make mistakes. Their defense is improved but the Tigers can probably run it pretty well on them. AU will have to pass it effectively, too, to loosen up the defense so they can run the ball. Will have more next Thursday on AU-Kentucky.
Other SEC games
No. 11 Florida @ Missouri
6:30 PM CT/7:30 PM ET
SEC Network
Gators by 5
I really like what Jim McElwain is doing in Gainesville. He inherited a pretty good roster and has molded them into a good football team. The Gators dismantled Ole Miss last Saturday night, 38-10, and I don't think this train is slowing up any time soon. Missouri freshman quarterback Drew Lock looks like he'll be for real, but he won't be enough Saturday.
Florida 27, Missouri 21
South Carolina @ No.7 LSU
2:30 PM CT/3:30 ET
ESPN
LSU by 19 1/2
Leonard Fournette goes off again. He leads the country in rushing with 864 yards. Will probably break 1,000 in this game.
LSU 35, South Carolina 14
No. 19 Georgia @ Tennessee
2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET
CBS
Dawgs by 3
Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and the Dawgs are angry. Tennessee is a good offensive team, and they've lost some tough ones, but I like the Dawgs to take care of business in Neyland Stadium. Should be a good game though.
Georgia 31, UT 27
New Mexico State @ Ole Miss
11 AM CT/Noon ET
SEC Network
Ole Miss by 45
The Rebels are healing up from the blasting they took at the hands of Florida, but obviously they're fine here.
Ole Miss 52, New Mexico State 3
Troy @ Mississippi State
3 PM CT/4 PM ET
SEC Network
State by 30 1/2
State 45, Troy 17
Off: Auburn, Texas A&M, Vandy, Kentucky
Major national games:
No. 13 Northwestern @ No.18 Michigan
2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET
Big Ten Network
Michigan by 7 1/2
Northwestern is a good, solid football team. They play power football and play good defense much like the Wolverines. Like Harbaugh to get it done at home though. But I'm expecting a tough, hard fought game.
Michigan 24, Northwestern 20
Georgia Tech @ No. 6 Clemson
2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET
ABC or ESPN2
Clemson by 7
I love what Dabo Swinney is doing at Clemson. He has the program rockin in his eighth season. Clemson plays SEC-like football. Like them to handle Tech at home.
Clemson 35, Georgia Tech 24
Navy @ No. 15 Notre Dame
2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET
NBC
Notre Dame by 14 1/2
Navy is 4-0 after a solid pounding of a pretty good Air Force team. I'm tempted to pick the upset here, but I'll take the Irish at home, barely. Irish coming off a tough loss at Clemson.
Notre Dame 31, Navy 28
Other national stuff
No.5 Utah 38, No.23 California 30
9 PM CT/10 PM ET
ESPN
No.1 Ohio State 48, Maryland 7
No.2 TCU 45, Kansas State 31
No.3 Baylor 70, Kansas 21
No.10 Oklahoma 42, Texas 24
11 AM CT/Noon ET
ABC
No.12 Florida State 31, Miami 28
7 PM CT/8PM ET
ABC
West Virginia 42, No. 21 Oklahoma State 38
6 PM CT/ 7 PM ET
ESPN2