SEC Championship Game 2015
Saturday, Dec. 5th, 3 PM CT/ 4 PM ET on CBS
Alabama over Georgia
College Football Playoff teams:
Ohio State, Alabama, TCU and Oregon
Ohio State
Too much talent not to put them in there. The team is loaded and Urb can be annoying, but they're coached up well. The only thing that could cause them to stumble is complacency. Repeating is hard. But with running back Ezekiel Elliott and all the weapons on offense with whoever plays quarterback, Cardale Jones, who is battling some migraines right now or J.T. Barrett, along with a pretty stout defense and a Big Ten schedule that looks very navigable, I like the Buckeyes to be there in January playing in the semifinals.
Alabama
While quarterback is somewhat unsettled, the defense is through the roof good and with the running game of Derrick Henry, Kenyon Drake and super talented five star freshman Damien Harris, the quarterback should be able to manage the game well and get the ball to the talented receiving corps led by Robert Foster and ArDarius Stewart. This defense has a chance to be the best in Nick Saban's nine years at Alabama. I watched Kirby Smart in an interview before the season and he looks charged up about this group. Just to give you an example of the talent this group has, Jonathan Allen was a five star recruit out of Virginia in 2o13 and I watched film on him in high school and he just destroyed opposing running backs and quarterbacks. He would actually lift them up and throw them to the turf. He's a beast. But he's second string behind massive A'Shawn Robinson. He'll play a lot and be an excellent player for the Tide at defensive end, but Robinson is a heckuva player as well. Just disruptive, game changing players who are difference makers up front. On the other side of the d line, De'Shawn Hand was a five star recruit in 2014 out of Virginia and he's third string behind Jarran Reed (the starter) and Dalvin Tomlinson. Reed is terrific. That shows how deep this defensive line is. Senior Darren Lake will be the nose guard and the Tide is three deep there with a couple of younger, talented players behind him in freshman Daron Payne and sophomore Josh Frazier. The four linebackers are superb in Dillon Lee, the awesome Reggie Ragland, the powerful and massively hard hitting Rueben Foster (who S wants to tackle better so he won't get another concussion), and the always reliable and steady Denzel Devall. The secondary is the area that needed to improve the most and they have. Cyrus Jones comes back as a senior at one corner and Marlon Humphrey, the redshirt freshman who was five star two years ago out of Hoover High School in Birmingham, has taken over at the other corner spot. Eddie Jackson will be the strong safety and Geno Smith is the free safety. There is plenty of talent behind the starters. Look for sophomore Tony Brown to play a lot at corner and freshman five star Minkah Fitzpatrick is a guy they're really high on.
It's just a matter of the quarterback playing solid and also playing well. Coker looks like the safe pick at QB, Cooper Bateman the most explosive, and Alec Morris a reliable, solid passer. I like Bateman's 4.5 speed and athletic ability. I liked when Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan went against the grain on Monday and picked Tyrod Taylor as his starter over the experienced E. J. Manuel. Taylor has been nothing short of spectacular in the preseason and Ryan didn't make the safe choice, but went with the guy who had the hottest hand in the preseason. That's the way I feel about Bateman over Coker and Morris. He's the most dynamic athlete, his accuracy has really improved, and he can make things happen with his wheels. He's the most like Blake Sims of the three and you need a mobile quarterback who can make things happen, a guy who can gain 10 to 12 yards on a scramble when receivers aren't open or the pocket breaks down. My choice is Bateman, but Coker may start against Whisky. Should be an interesting development during the game to see how S and Lane Kiffin use their quarterbacks. We could see all three against Whisky. S did this in 2011 with two quarterbacks, A.J. and Phillip Sims, until A.J. took over in the game against Penn State and took it from there leading the Crimson Tide to two straight national titles in 2011-12. So there is time to figure that out if that's what S and Kiffin choose to do. I think the Tide will be fine against Wisconsin, so the quarterback competition may continue into week two against Middle Tennessee State (3 PM CT SEC Network), and not be solidified until game three against Ole Miss at Bryant-Denny, Sept. 19th, an 8:15 PM CT/9:15 PM ET kickoff on ESPN.
The kicking game looks solid. Punter J. K. Scott is All-American like. He can flat out crush the ball. He's a game changer at punter and there are not too many punters in the country you can say that about. Adam Griffith is back from battling an injury that impaired his kicking last year, so he should be a lot better. Cyrus Jones, Chris Black and Oregon State transfer Richard Mullaney are 1-2-3 on the depth chart at punt returner. Not sure about Cyrus as a punt returner, haven't seen enough on him to know how good he will be. But he is a stellar athlete, and Black was a five star in high school and I'm expecting him to step up this year and have a big year at wide receiver. I've heard good things about Mullaney, the transfer. He could be a real factor in the passing game. And Cam Sims is another player that, when he gets healthy from his torn MCL and LCL in his knee, and it sounds like he'll be back sooner rather than later in what could be the most remarkable recovery from a major knee injury in recent college football history, with his 6'5" frame could be a huge asset in the passing game.
On kickoff return, the explosive Drake and Stewart could take some to the house for the Tide. Very explosive, game changing players as kickoff returners.
So I love this team. They're really outstanding. Quarterback needs to be settled by Ole Miss and the running backs need to stay healthy, but overall this is a very exceptional looking football team. The offensive line will be anchored by center Ryan Kelly, who's not only an excellent, physical player, but also a highly intelligent leader who can make the calls on the line and really help an inexperienced quarterback much like Barrett Jones did for A.J. McCarron for two years. By the way, Barrett is listed as the starting center for the St. Louis Rams on their depth chart. Good decision by the Rams. Alabama players are all over the NFL. It's remarkable really.
The Tide will also have Cam Robinson, all 6"6, 326 pounds of him anchoring the left tackle spot and massive guys all over the front. The o line should be outstanding with good depth. So this is definitely a playoff team. The tricky part is there are three teams with bye weeks before they play the Tide. The Tide goes to A&M on Oct. 17th after a bye week for A&M. Alabama hosts Tennessee October 24th after a bye week for them and LSU plays the Tide after a bye week on Nov.7th at Bryant-Denny. But Bama does get a bye week before they play LSU, too. But I'm from the school of thinking that it is good to keep playing. I actually think Alabama has an advantage playing teams coming off a bye week because the Tide will be game ready and those teams will have not played for two weeks. That's an advantage in my opinion. The only area where that could be a factor is injuries. They're always the X factor. An October 3rd date at Athens to play Georgia will be a tough one, but one I like the Tide to prevail in, but in a hard fought, highly physical contest. Of course, the big one will be Nov.28th, at Auburn. The Tigers are going to be outstanding on offense and much improved on defense. I was tempted to pick the Tigers as SEC champs, but they're not extremely deep on defense though they will be good and much improved under Will Muschamp. Gus's offense should be superb with the awesome Jeremy Johnson, Roc Thomas and Duke Williams and a ton of playmakers alongside and behind them and an outstanding offensive line; maybe the best in the country. Wow, that's a dominating o line at Auburn. So it's a tough call and it's on the Plains, but this Tide defense and a solid, if not spectacular offense, will barely prevail in this year's Iron Bowl in what should be an epic. I like Auburn to play in a New Year's Six Bowl though, the Sugar Bowl is highly doable for the Tigers, and have an excellent season. I see Bama going 12-1 or 13-0 and AU to go 11-2. So I've got Bama over AU barely in my SEC title game and playoff.
TCU and Oregon
I also like TCU and Oregon. TCU returns 16 of 22 starters and are loaded. They have a hyper-explosive offense led by superstar quarterback Trevone Boykin, and a SEC-style defense which will make them the cream of the crop in the Big 12. Not having a championship game is problematic for TCU, but if they take care of all their business during the regular season, I see them getting to the playoff. I also like Oregon. I watched Oregon's spring game and they look as electric as ever on offense. Add to this dynamically loaded, playmaking offense Eastern Washington quarterback transfer Vernon Adams, who led the FCS in passing efficiency last year with a 183.13 rating, which was even better than Marcus Mariota's 181.75, and Adams threw for 3,483 yards and 35 TDs against eight ints. He's a stud and he will make the transition to FBS pretty seamlessly. He may struggle a little at first, but I'm a believer in him and this dynamic offense to win the PAC 12 title and make the playoff. Running backs Royce Freeman and Thomas Tyner are spectacular. And the Ducks' defense will be good enough to get them to the playoff.
There will be plenty of outstanding bowl match ups as well. I never underestimate the value of bowl games. You see some really good football played in bowl games. They're still a staple in college football and hopefully always will be even with the playoff. They should be.
So my playoff is:
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. TCU
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
But we're just starting the season, so without any further ado here is a look at the games in one of the most exciting times in sports; the start of the college football season. All the rankings are the coaches' poll rankings.
Record last year: 204-82 (71%); Bowls: 21-15 (58%)
No. 20 Wisconsin vs. No.3 Alabama
Advocare Classic
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (80,000)
7 PM CT/8 PM ET Saturday
ABC
Chris Fowler, Herbie, Heather Cox
Weather: 93 degrees at kickoff, 10% rain, wind ESE 5 MPH
Line: Bama by 11
Wisconsin is solid and Sports Illustrated reported that quarterback Joel Stave is over the "yips" he had last year throwing the ball in which he threw nine TDs and 1o interceptions, and he'll be pretty good in the passing game, according to SI. But the Badgers, though they should be good in the Big Ten West, are not in the same class as Alabama. S and Kiffin should get more clarity on their quarterback situation and the Tide will roll here.
Bama 35, Wisconsin 14
Louisville vs. No.6 Auburn
Chick-fil-A Kickoff game
Georgia Dome, Atlanta (71,228)
2:30 PM CT/ 3:30 PM ET Saturday
CBS
Verne, better get to the media buffet line early, Lundquist, Gary, needs to be gagged mostof the time, Danielson and Allie LaForce
Weather: Dome, 72 degrees, perfect
Line: AU by 10 1/2
A lot of sports writers and sportscasters are bullish on the Tigers and I'm in agreement. Quarterback Jeremy Johnson will be superb, and so will running back Roc Thomas. Duke Williams looks like he's back in the coaches good graces and he can really be terrific if he keeps his act together. The o line anchored by Ole Miss transfer Austin Golson at center, Alex Kozan at right guard, who returns from missing a season last year due to injury, the inspirational Shon Coleman at right tackle, the tough as nails Braden Smith at left guard, and the massive Avery Young at left tackle, looks like it could be the country's best. They are huge, physical and deep up front. The defense will be much improved. I like the Tigers having Carl Lawson back from injury at defensive end and Montravius Adams should be a beast at defensive tackle along with Lawson. I like the linebacking corps led by Kris Frost and Cassanova McKinzy and I'm ready to see sophomore Tre Williams have a breakout year. He's a co-starter along with McKinzy and Frost right now. The highly talented Justin Garrett will man the other linebacker spot. The secondary looks very good with potential All-SEC corner Jonathan Jones and Michigan transfer Blake Countess manning the corners and Jonathan Ford and former Georgia standout Tray Matthews at safeties. That's a good secondary, though they're not that deep. I like this Tigers defense overall, it's just depth at linebacker and the secondary and all over the defense that keeps me from picking the Tigers to win the SEC. The offense is certainly going to be explosive. Ricardo Louis should have a big year at receiver returning kicks along with Ford. Marcus Davis or Jason Smith will return punts. Davis looks explosive and Smith is supposed to be but there's not much intel on either one. Daniel Carlson will be an excellent kicker and Kevin Phillips will punt. Not sure about Phillips. Will have to see him perform in game one.
Neck brace has worked on Auburn since the day after getting blasted 37-14 by Georgia in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte on Dec. 30th. But his workaholic preparation for Auburn will not be enough for Louisville. Too much Roc Thomas, Jeremy Johnson and an explosive offense for the Loiusville defense to handle. Like the Tigers to take care of business in the Georgia Dome, then take care of business against Jax State at home a week from Saturday, Sept. 12th, then hit the road for a 2:30 PM CT CBS kickoff at Death Valley to face the LSU Tigers in what should be a classic. Like Gus and the Tigers to have a huge season and it's very close for them to be in the SEC championship game and the college football playoff. They're definitely right there.
AU 42, Louisville 31
SEC schedule
No. 15 Arizona State vs. Texas A&M
NRG Stadium, Houston (71,500)
6 PM CT/ 7 PM ET
ESPN
Line: A&M by 3 1/2
Another marquee game for the SEC against a Power 5 conference opponent. Arizona State is for real. Kirk Herbstreit picked them in his playoff along with Ohio State, LSU and Baylor. Not buying that, but they're a very explosive, well coached football team. But I like the new Texas Gunslinger, Kyle Allen, to throw it all over the field against the Sun Devils. Allen looks poised to be a breakout player in the SEC and in the country. Kevin Sumlin has recruited extremely well the last three years and has talent all over the roster. He brought in John Chavis from LSU to be his defensive coordinator which was an outstanding hire. Chavis will make this defense more aggressive, more physical and a top flight unit in the next couple of years. There is a lot of returning young talent on that side of the ball and Sumlin and his offense are always going to be good just like Gus's is. While Arizona State could have a very good year and possibly win the PAC 12 South division, though I like UCLA there, I don't think can beat the Aggies, but it'll be quite an offensive game. It should be outstanding. Like Allen and A&M to throw it all over the field, run the ball some and play enough defense to come away with a hard fought victory over the Sun Devils.
A&M 35, Arizona State 31
Tonight
Couple of key out of conference games here.
South Carolina vs. North Carolina
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N. C. (73,298)
5 PM CT/ 6 PM ET
ESPN
Line: South Carolina by 2 1/2
This is a tough opener for Ball Coach against an up and coming UNC team under Coach Larry Fedora, who was really good at Southern Miss and is in his third year at Chapel Hill. SC has flown under the radar in the offseason because everybody has been saying Ball Coach is going to hang it up soon. If this year doesn't go well, that could happen, but I don't think it's going to happen. The Gamecocks will be much improved, they've got a good young quarterback in Connor Mitch, an all world receiver in Pharaoh Cooper, and plenty of playmakers on offense. Jon Hoke has come to Columbia after a long stint in the NFL to co-coordinate the defense with Lorenzo Ward, who really needed some help after last season's defensive disaster. Hoke was Spurrier's defensive coordinator at Florida in 2000-01 and helped the Gators lead the SEC in total defense. He's proven in the NFL too, so this is a big pickup for Ball Coach. This can be a pretty good football team. Can they win the East? They have to go to Georgia, but they've proven they can beat the Dawgs on the road. They'll have to go to Tennessee and the Vols are much improved. They have to go to A&M, to Missouri, and they play LSU at home, so they have their work cut out for them. But this can be a football team that can make some noise in the East if they can stay relatively healthy. Like Ball Coach and his team to get it done here.
South Carolina 31, North Carolina 28
Western Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt Stadium, Dudley Field, Nashville (39,790)
7 PM CT/ 8 PM ET
SEC Network
Line: Western Kentucky by 2 1/2
Derek Mason says his team has forgotten about 2014, turned the page and are re-energized for 2015. He made coaching changes in the offseason, hiring James Dobson from Nebraska as his strength coach, Andy Ludwig from Wisconsin as his offensive coordinator, he hired a couple of young coaches to coach the wide receivers and safeties respectively, and he took over the defense as its coordinator. They were all good moves. I watched practice two weeks ago and the players were impressive looking physically. There is a lot of talent on this team, particularly on defense, and Coach Mason can really coach some defense. As Stanford's defensive coordinator, he helped Stanford shut down Marcus Mariota and the Oregon offensive attack two years a row in upset victories for the Cardinal over Oregon. He knows what he's doing on defense and he said he will be making all decisions on going for it, when to use a timeout, and when to go for two, etc... Ludwig is tough, smart and brings that mentality to the Vandy offense. I see a real change in this football team. They are going against a high powered offense though in the Hilltoppers, which averaged 44 points last year and 374 yards passing per game. They beat an undefeated Marshall team last year, which came into the game 11-0, 67-66, and won their bowl game, the Bahamas Bowl, 49-48 over Central Michigan. Their sixth year quarterback, Brandon Doughty, completed 68% of his passes last year, 337-of-552 for 4,830 yards, 49 touchdowns and only 10 ints. They're going to really give the Vandy defense a major challenge. But I think the Vandy defense is up for it and can do enough along with a better offense under Ludwig to get the W, which would be huge for Coach Mason.
Vandy 34, Western Kentucky 31
Saturday's games
Louisiana Monroe @ Georgia
11 AM CT/Noon ET
SEC Network
Line: Dawgs by 35 1/2
Like the Dawgs to definitely take care of business here and Nick Chubb to go off as he makes his early Heisman statement. It's too early to worry about the Heisman, but Chubb is such an explosive, electric, game changing player. He just runs with reckless abandon and can run over people around them, cut on a dime and definitely take it to the house. He ran for 1,594 yards and 14 touchdowns and put on some clinics last year. Against Louisville in the Belk Bowl he ran for 266 yards and two touchdowns. It was spectacular. He's spectacular. He'll have Sony Michel and a rejuvenated Keith Marshall behind him for a powerhouse, take it to the house, running game. Grayson Lambert, the Virginia transfer, will get the start at quarterback for the Dawgs. Mark Richt may be in a similar situation as Nick Saban in that this could be an audition at qb with Bryce Ramsey being another quarterback who has plenty of talent, but not a lot of experience. Richt will play them both and see who's better as he prepares his team for a trip to Vandy a week from Saturday at 2:30 PM CT on CBS and a home game against South Carolina two weeks from Saturday. Defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt will have the Dawgs playing more stellar defense this year, too. Believer in Pruitt. This could be a special year for the Dawgs.
Georgia 52, ULM 7
Tennessee Martin @ No. 17 Ole Miss
11 AM CT/Noon ET
SEC Network
No Line
The Rebels shouldn't have any problem here. They're auditioning quarterbacks, too. Chad Kelly, former Buffalo Bills quarterback Jim Kelly's nephew, he was kicked off the team at Clemson and transferred to Ole Miss, will get the start. But Hugh Freeze said the quarterback situation is "not set in stone." So here's another SEC team with a quarterback question that will be answered either in the first or second game. They have a really good defense led by stud defensive end Robert Nkemdiche, and their offense has playmakers. They should have a good season if their quarterback works out.
Rebels 49, UT Martin 3
Other SEC games:
Arkansas 42, UTEP 17 (2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET
ESPNU, Hogs by 33)
Missouri 42, Southwest Missouri State 0 (3 PM
CT/4 PM ET, SEC Network, no line).
Tennessee 41, Bowling Green 14 (3 PM CT/ 4 PM
ET, SEC Network, Vols by 20 1/2)
Kentucky 38, Louisiana Lafayette 17 (6 PM CT/7
PM ET, ESPNU, Ky by 17)
LSU 35, McNeese State 7 (6:30 PM CT/7:30 PM
ET, SEC Network, No line)
Florida 41, New Mexico State 3 (6 :30 PM
CT/7:30 PM ET, SEC Network, Gators by 37)
Mississippi State 45, Southern Miss 7 (9 PM
CT/10 OPM ET,Fox Sports 1, State by 20 1/2)
National predictions
Tonight
Utah 35, Michigan 28 ( 7:30 PM CT/8:30 PM ET, Fox Sports 1, Utah by 5)
TCU 38, Minnesota 21 (7 PM CT/ 8 PM ET, ESPN, TCU by 16 1/2)
Friday
Boise State 34, Washington 31 (9:15 PM CT/10:15 PM ET, ESPN, Boise State by 12)
Saturday
UCLA 45, Virginia 24 (2:30 PM CT/ 3:30 PM ET, FOX, UCLA by 19 1/2)
Stanford 31, Northwestern 28 (11 AM CT/Noon ET, ESPN, Stanford by 12)
Notre Dame 28, Texas 24 (6:30 PM CT/7:30 PM ET, NBC, ND by 9 1/2)
Upset City
BYU 34, Nebraska 30 (Nebraska by 6 1/2, 2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET, ABC)
Monday
Ohio State 31, Virginia Tech 28 (7 PM CT/ 8 PM ET, ESPN, Ohio State by 12)
I'm expecting a good game here. Va Tech wore out the Buckeyes last year in Columbus, 35-21, and they've got a really good defense this year under long time cagey veteran defensive coordinator Bud Foster. The Buckeyes will squeak this one out in Blacksburg.
