Should be a terrific Saturday of football though nerve wrecking for Tide and Tiger fans; particularly AU fans. Tide goes to historic Happy Valley to face Joe Pa and Penn State while Tigers host explosive Mississippi State. Here's a look at what to expect tomorrow along with the weekly picks.
Record for the season: (12-0)
Mississippi State @Auburn; 11:20 AM CT, SEC Network (Channel 21 in Birmingham)
State playing with a lot of confidence right now. Chris Relf is a new quarterback under Dan Mullen and Vick Ballard is a force at tailback. Relf very accurate now and has that Cam size at 6'4", 240. Ballard had 166 yards last week against Memphis and three scores. Great power and deceptively fast. State with a solid offensive line and some pretty good weapons on the perimeter. Defense is pretty decent. AU will hope for better results from the running game. Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb will have to step up their play this week. Offensive line will have to be better. This group hasn't played together much and they're trying to jell. I'm a believer in Barrett Trotter. I think he's going to be a good quarterback for AU. Has a lot of poise and is accurate. Emory Blake is a stud and Lutzenkirchen catches everything in sight and gets in the end zone.
The defense is the issue for the Tigers. They're young overall, and while they have great athletes, they're still learning how to play the college game. How well they contain Relf and Ballard will determine the outcome. They can't really stack the box totally because Relf is good enough now to beat you through the air, but I would think they would do that more than not. Need to get some pressure on Relf. Jeffrey Whitaker, Nosa Eguae and linemates will have to step up and linebackers will have to be very active, making a lot of plays. Think outside linebacker Jonathan Evans will be available. AU needs him. MLB Jake Holland is going to be a really good player and he should have a good game tomorrow. Just don't think Tigers are there defensively yet. They're potentially a better defense than last year's, but not yet.
Final analysis: In the end as much as I'd like to pick the Tigers, AU fans, I've got to go with the team that looks a little better on both sides of the ball. Auburn will score points. The offense looks like it'll be good this year. Just think State will do a little more. AU's defense a work in progress. While State's defense isn't great, they will do a little better than Tigers'D. Tigers are a young team who could surprise people this year and look primed for a big 2012, but this is an early one and I've got to go with the more experienced team. Expecting a good game though.
Miss State 31, Auburn 27
Alabama @Penn State; 2:30 PM CT, ABC
The question here is: can A.J. McCarron and maybe Phillip Sims do enough to help the Tide beat the Nittany Lions? I think they will. This is a typical Penn State team with a good running game and solid defense led by linebackers Mike Hull and Mike Yancich. Penn State always has a great linebacker name and Yancich is another in the great line of linebackers at Penn State. Silas Redd ran for 104 yards and two tds last week for Lions. They run a two quarterback rotation. Rob Bolden, the more athletic qb, was 6 of 12 for 37 yards last week, while Matt McGloin, the better passer, was six of eight for 77 yards. Bolden was sacked twice last week and McGloin once, so PSU line could be vulnerable to Courtney Upshaw and others.
Like the Tide defense to get it done as usual. Mark Barron looks like an All American and first round draft pick. Dont'a is back in his form from two years ago, which was dominant. Upshaw, C.J. Mosley, the emerging superstar Trey Depriest, Nico Johnson and Jerrell Harris are outstanding players. Barron, Robert Lester, DeQuan Menzie, Dre and the emerging Vinnie Sunseri are all All-SEC, All-American players. Defensive line still a little bit of a work in progress, but will get better as season progresses. Will be interesting to see them line up against Penn State Oline tomorrow. Josh Chapman, Damion Square and rest of front will be challenged.
On offense, Trent, Eddie and Jalston will have their work cut out for them. Penn State will probably load up the box, so Barrett Jones and William Vlachos and line mates will have to be physical. McCarron and Sims (if he gets in much, I expect him to play) will have to do something through the air. Marquis Maze is looking like a next level player. Kind of a Javy on offense. Great punt returner, too. Will be interesting to see if Duron Carter gets some chances. He's got that size at 6'4", 210, so his impact would help. DeAndrew White looks like he'll be excellent. McCarron needs to rely on Trent and Eddie out of the backfield for some swing passes and screens. Tide's going to have to be somewhat creative on offense because Penn State will be geared up to stop the run.
Final analysis: The Tide just too good on defense for the Nittany Lions. Nittany Lions will make a game of it at Happy Valley; they're a solid football team. But Trent, Eddie and Fowler will probably make a big play or two; particularly Trent. McCarron will have enough help where he can just be a little better than adequate and get his team over the top. Sims will probably play. It'll be interesting to see how S and Jim McElwain play that rotation out. I like one quarterback, but you just got to go with what works. If McCarron is not getting it done, maybe they go to Sims. Sims is a little bit of a liability at this point. Still think offense does enough and defense should be pretty dominant.
S, 24, Joe Pa, 14
South Carolina @Georgia; 3:30 PM CT, ESPN
Dogs' backs are against the wall and I hate to say it, but Mark Richt is treading on very thin ice right now. He really needs this game, but I don't think he's going to get it. Stephen Garcia is back after serving a first quarter benching by Spurrier a week ago. South Carolina scored 56 against East Carolina but gave up 37, so that should be concerning to Spurrier. Still like the Lattimore and Jeffery combination. Both as prolific together as any running back/wide receiver combination in the country. Lattimore rushed for 112 last week against East Carolina and three touchdowns. Jeffery caught 5 passes for 92 yards, an average of 18.4 yards per catch. Garcia just needs to get the ball to those two and they'll take care of the rest. Aaron Murray is a good quarterback, but I don't think he has enough to work with and Kellen Moore shredded the Georgia pass defense last week. Don't think Garcia is Kellen Moore, but he can be pretty good. He'll play well enough. Should be a pretty high scoring affair. Just like Lattimore and Jeffery to be the difference.
South Carolina 35, Georgia 30
UAB @ Florida; 6 PM CT, ESPN GamePlan, ESPN3
UAB opens in a hostile environment against another talented team. They play well against good opponents, but Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and others may be too much for the UAB defense to stop. Offense will be pretty productive this year with Bryan Ellis at qb. Will miss Pat Shed at running back tomorrow night; he's a good player. Sophomore Greg Franklin will have to pick up the slack with help from junior Dontavious Jackson. Like UAB's linebacking corps led by 6'2", 225 pound olb Lamanski Ware. The offensive line looks better. If they can give Ellis some protection, he may be able to work on the Florida secondary. The size factor is a difference on Florida's offensive front versus UAB's defensive front. Florida averages 300 on oline while UAB dline is 275 at both tackles and 230 at one end but 250 at the other end. That's an advantage to the Gators. If Demps and Rainey get room to run, particularly on the outside, it could be a long night for the Blazers' defense.
I think the Blazers will be competitive. Beating Florida is tough in the Swamp though it's been done some lately. I see the Blazers giving the Gators a good game, but coming up a little short at the end. Blazers need a good season, so there's a lot of season left if this doesn't turn out the way they want it to.
Gators 42, Blazers 31
Cincinnati @ Tennessee; 2:30 PM CT, ESPN2
This is an interesting one. Cincy beat Austin Peay last week, 72-10, while the Vols handled Montana, 42-16. The Vols aren't there yet. They're so young this year. Cincy looks like a pretty legit team. Like them to pull it off. Tyler Bray should be a very good quarterback this year, but Vols can't stop Cincy offense.
Cincy 35, UT 27
Central Michigan @ Kentucky; 11 AM CT, ESPNU
Kentucky didn't look very good against Western Kentucky last week only winning 14-3. They go back to another easy game as they play a Central Michigan team that only beat South Carolina State 21-6. Not sure if Morgan Newton will be a real effective quarterback in the SEC. Maybe these first few games will get him prepared. He has all the physical tools and has looked good at times. Kentucky should pull this one out, though.
Kentucky 31, Central Michigan 14
Southern Illinois @Ole Miss; 5 PM CT, ESPN GamePlan, ESPN3
Ole Miss is struggling. After losing to a pretty good, highly competitive BYU team, they lost both Brandon Bolden and Enrique Davis to injury for this week. Bolden has a slight fracture of his ankle, but according to the Ole Miss beat writer for the Jackson Clarion Ledger, he should be back for Vandy next week. Davis should be OK, but they're going to have to rely on Jeff Scott at running back and quarterback Zack Stoudt who did a pretty good job replacing Barry Brunetti last week. Ole Miss might struggle a little bit tomorrow, but should come out on top over the Salukis.
Rebs 28, Salukis 20
New Mexico @Arkansas; 6 PM, ESPNU
Look for Hogs to have a big day. Tyler Wilson is going to have a great year. Running back not as explosive without Knile Davis, but good enough with Ronnie Wingo and others. Wide receivers are as good as anybody in the country. I'd go as far as to say they're the best receiving corps in the country. They just keep coming at you with Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, Joe Adams and about four or five more. Should be a track meet for the Hogs tomorrow night.
Ark 62, Lobos 14
UConn @ Vandy; 6:30 PM CT, CSS
I watched UConn this morning before work and was pretty impressed. Oline goes 306 across the front and their running back, Lyle McCombs, ran for 141 yards and four TDs last week against Fordham. Fordham not that good, but thought UConn looked pretty solid. Senior running back D.J. Shoemate will be back this week and he adds another threat in the backfield. They run three quarterbacks which is unusual. Johnny McEntee is the best passer and Scott McCummings the best athlete. Vandy will have to deal with that big offensive line and their running game. It'll be tough. Vandy should probably load up in the box and hope their secondary can do a better job of covering than they did last week. Thought secondary would be a strength of this team, and I still think they're pretty good, but got shredded last week by Elon's Aaron Mellette, who caught 12 passes for 180 yards. Mellette is the real deal though. He'll be playing on Sundays next year. Wish I could pick my school, but don't have enough trust in quarterback Larry Smith and suspect offensive line and receivers. UConn going to be a little better. Another heartbreak in Nashville.
UConn 27, Dores 24
Northwestern State @LSU; 7 PM, ESPN GamePlan, ESPN3
LSU may have a little let down after last week, but it won't matter. Some of'em can take naps during the game and win this one. Just trying to get better as they head into a huge matchup next Thursday Night in Starkville against State. That's a must see. 7 PM ESPN.
LSU 49, Northwestern State 3
(Emory Blake (left) and Marquis Maze are key players tomorrow for their respective teams.)